South Africa continues to navigate a complex landscape marked by economic challenges, demands for greater social transformation, and shifting political dynamics. As we gear up for the 2025 State of the Nation Address (SONA) by Cyril Ramaphosa on 6 February 2025, there are a few key issues to keep in mind.
Economic Overview
1. Growth and Recovery: South Africa’s economy continues to exhibit signs of moderate recovery after the calamitous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s GDP growth is projected to grow at a robust (by South African standards) 2% for 2025, attributed to improved global economic conditions and domestic reforms.
2. Energy security: South Africa’s energy security landscape has experienced major progress, with over three hundred days of no loadshedding. Though loadshedding made a brief return in February, the trajectory remains one of recovery and stability. The return of load shedding highlights ongoing issues with infrastructure reliability and maintenance. Balancing financial sustainability with consumer affordability remains a critical issue.
3. Unemployment: Despite signs of recovery, unemployment remains a significant challenge, particularly among the youth, with rates still hovering at over 30%. The government has initiated various programs aimed at skills development and job creation, but these are yet to yield tangible benefits.
4. Mining and Agriculture: The mining sector, a cornerstone of the economy, has benefited from rising global commodity prices. Agriculture is also on a recovery path, particularly in the production of staple crops, but remains vulnerable to climate change.
5. Investment Climate: South Africa’s investment climate is improving, with increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in technology and renewable energy sectors due to government incentives aimed at green energy transitions.
Governance and Political Climate
6. Political Leadership: The political landscape will be dominated by talk of succession within the African National Congress. The expected National General Council in June 2025 will likely kick off contestation between competing groupings in the party. Ructions over the leadership of the Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces may be the first shots in what is likely to be a destructive leadership succession battle. How this will impact governance at state level remains to be seen.
7. Corruption and Accountability: Corruption remains a significant issue, with ongoing efforts to strengthen institutions and restore public trust. The establishment of anti-corruption bodies has led to some high-profile convictions, but challenges persist. The lacklustre performance of the National Prosecuting Authority on State Capture cases and seeming disinterest by government in the outcomes of the Zondo Commission are worrying signs that government may not have learned important lessons about the need for a strong response to arrest South Africa’s governance slide.
8. Electoral Dynamics: With the next local government elections due to be held in 2026, the political environment is expected to be noisy. The still nascent Government of National Unity (GNU) is likely to be severely tested as parties do their utmost to discredit each other to position themselves in the lead up to the elections. Smaller parties such as the African Transformation Movement and ActionSA are likely to ramp up their anti-GNU rhetoric in a bid to garner more votes in areas where the ANC and DA are especially vulnerable
With uMkhonto weSizwe (MKP) delivering a surprising result in the 2024 national elections, eyes will be on the party to see how it fairs in local government elections. With the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) voter support declining in 2024, the party will be hoping to emerge unscathed in next year’s elections, however, internal ructions may not work to its advantage.
Social Issues
9. Inequality and Poverty: Social disparities persist, with stark contrasts in wealth and living conditions. Stubbornly high unemployment and an underperforming education system are not helping matters in this area. From a risk perspective, this remains one of the highest risks to the country’s stability, spawning violent crime, infrastructure vandalism, and drug use.
10. Education and Health: The education system is undergoing reforms aimed at improving quality and accessibility. The country produced its highest matric pass rate since 1994. However, questions will persist about the quality of the achievement, as well as the thousands of learners who dropped out of the education before reaching matric. On health, government remains determined to proceed with the National Health Insurance scheme. President Ramaphosa is likely to remind the NHI’s detractors that government will proceed with implementing the plan, despite vocal opposition from health interest groups and opposition political parties.
11. Youth Engagement: Young South Africans are increasingly vocal about their rights and opportunities. Given more than 50% unemployment in this cohort, this is not a surprising outcome. The President will be keen to show that his government, particularly the ANC understands the plight of young voters by announcing of raft of initiatives on skilling and access to funding for youth owned businesses.
International Relations
12. Regional Cooperation: South Africa will continue to play a critical role in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) in line with its focus on “Consolidating the African Agenda.” South Africa will be tested by the post-election instability in Mozambique, including the insurgency in the north of the country, the deteriorating situation in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and the resultant diplomatic tensions with Rwanda, South Sudan as well as democratic reversals in West Africa where a series of military juntas have installed themselves in power leading to the weakening of the region’s economic community – ECOWAS.
13. Global Partnerships: South Africa’s leadership of the Group of 20 grouping is an opportunity for South Africa to brand itself as a bridge between emerging economies and the developed north. In keeping with the theme of “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability,” South Africa is likely to drive a strong bargain for a fairer international system that takes account of developmental disparities and recognises the developed world’s developmental aspirations. Coming after Brazil and India, South Africa will want to cement gains made by these giants of the emerging world during their leadership of this important body.
14. Global Peace and Stability: The signing of a truce between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to sway South Africa’s in its determination to prosecute a case of genocide against Israel at the International Criminal Court. However, the changing of the guard in Washington, with President Donal Trump returning to the White House, may necessitate a reassessment of South Africa’s posture, though this is unlikely to lead to an abandonment of principle.
15. SA-USA Relations: South Africa’s confirmation as a beneficiary under the US’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a welcome boost for the country. However, the announcement on X by President Trump that the US will suspend and review funding to South Africa was an unexpected development. How both countries navigate this will be a true test of diplomatic nous.
Conclusion
When President Ramaphosa delivers the SONA on 6 February, addressing economic recovery, social inequalities, and political stability will be critical. The ability of the government and other social partners to work together in implementing effective policies and reforms will shape the future trajectory of the nation. The engagement of the youth and the empowerment of marginalised communities are essential for building a more inclusive and sustainable South Africa.
