The conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to evolve, marked by escalating violence, shifting alliances, and new diplomatic interventions. The recent Extraordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), held on 13 March 2025, led by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, highlighted the deteriorating situation and made critical decisions that could reshape the region’s security landscape.
The End of the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC)
As Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, has been vocal about the need for SADC to leave the eastern DRC, he would have welcomed the Summit’s decision to terminate the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) and the phased withdrawal of regional troops. This decision, while not unexpected, follows a series of deadly confrontations, including the loss of 18 SADC troops in January 2025, which exposed the operational and strategic limitations of the mission. The withdrawal raises concerns over how the Congolese government will fill the security vacuum left by departing regional forces and whether the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) can independently manage the growing insurgency.
Escalating Security and Humanitarian Crisis
The Summit recognised the worsening security situation, particularly with the recent capture of Goma in North Kivu and Bukavu in South Kivu by armed groups, which has further destabilised the region. The blockage of key supply routes and an escalating humanitarian crisis, marked by mass displacements and food shortages, have compounded the suffering of civilians. SADC leaders called on the United Nations (UN), African Union (AU), and international partners to provide increased humanitarian aid to address the worsening conditions.
Regional and International Mediation Efforts
While deciding to withdraw troops, SADC reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding DRC’s sovereignty and stability, aligning its actions with the 2003 SADC Mutual Defence Pact. The bloc is pushing for a negotiated settlement with both state and non-state actors and endorsed the merger of the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes for enhanced coordination between SADC and the East African Community (EAC). This decision reflects a shift towards diplomatic engagement rather than direct military intervention.
Additionally, SADC welcomed UN Security Council Resolution 2773, which backs regional mediation efforts and reinforces the role of the UN, AU, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in addressing the crisis. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, as Chair of SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation, was commended for her leadership in advancing SADC’s peace and security agenda.
M23, Rwanda, and the Fragile Path to Peace
A critical challenge to peace efforts is the stance of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. Initially open to direct negotiations with the Congolese government, M23 later cancelled peace talks in response to European Union’s (EU) sanctions, arguing that such punitive measures undermine meaningful dialogue. This development threatens to prolong hostilities and complicate diplomatic resolutions.
Meanwhile, Rwanda’s deteriorating relations with Western powers, including the EU, UK, and U.S., and President Kagame’s accusations against Belgium (culminating in the expulsion of Belgian diplomats from Kigali on 17 March), signal a geopolitical realignment. Kigali may be finding itself in a difficult diplomatic and economic position. Its increasing friction with the West and SADC over its human rights record and alleged support for M23 has pushed it to seek alternative diplomatic and economic partners. Notably, the recent trilateral meeting between His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Than, Emir of the State of Qatar, and presidents of Rwanda and the DRC, suggests Rwanda may be exploring new alliances, potentially moving away from reliance on Western aid.
It remains unclear if Qatar will succeed where SADC and the AU have failed. Perhaps even more important, is what is the substance of the deal Qatar is trying to facilitate and what is its strategic interest in the conflict? Another vexed question is: what does this realignment portend for Kagame’s active role and longevity in the eastern DRC?
Implications and Outlook
The withdrawal of SAMIDRC troops poses risks for ongoing military operations and regional security coordination, raising questions about SADC’s long-term role in peacekeeping. However, SADC’s commitment to diplomatic interventions and the endorsement of merged peace processes indicate a shift toward multilateral conflict resolution.
Despite these efforts, the M23’s withdrawal from talks with DRC and Rwanda’s geopolitical pivot suggest that peace remains elusive. The Congolese government’s approach to armed groups, alongside the willingness of international actors to sustain engagement, will be critical in determining whether the eastern DRC moves towards stability or further chaos.
Ultimately, the situation remains fluid, with both military and diplomatic strategies shaping the next phase of the conflict. The ability of regional and international stakeholders to coordinate effectively will determine whether the DRC can find a path to lasting peace or continue to be mired in cycles of violence and instability.
