African National Congress (ANC) Secretary General, Fikile Mbalula, today briefed the media on the outcomes of the National Working Committee (NWC) meeting. He confirmed that his party has resolved to re-engage all parties in the Government of National Unity (GNU), including the Democratic Alliance (DA), and those outside the GNU, who voted in support of the 2025 fiscal framework and revenue proposals.
Following the impasse and subsequent adoption of the 2025 Budget by Parliament last week, the DA is left licking its wounds, as it thought the ANC could not pass it without it. The vote outcome highlighted the ANC’s leverage within the GNU. The passage of the budget undercut the DA’s assumption that it held a veto over key government decisions. By attempting to use the budget as a bargaining chip for policy concessions, the DA miscalculated the ANC’s ability to find alternative alliances.
The DA’s resistance to policies like the National Health Insurance (NHI), Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (BELA), and Expropriation Act aligns with its broader ideological stance, but its failure to block the budget weakens its negotiating position within the GNU. Now the DA finds itself on the backfoot and scrambling to stay in the GNU. What the whole saga around the budget has shown is that there is no shortage of political parties willing to join the ANC in government.
This episode also underscores the fluidity of the GNU, where smaller parties, many eager to have a share in governance, offer the ANC options beyond the DA. If the DA remains in the GNU, it may have to recalibrate its strategy to avoid further isolation. If it exits, the ANC seems confident that it will still command a working majority with alternative partners.
From the onset of the GNU, the DA was adamant that the ANC needed them, and that other coalition members where simply there to fill numbers, as the ANC combined with other members of the GNU, did not have the 50+ majority to pass legislation and make decisions. With the DA thinking it had the upper hand; the ANC showed its wily negotiation skills and political wherewithal to get things to go its way. For instance, through political manoeuvring and clever bargaining, the ANC is now back in government in all Gauteng municipalities.
With the stacks now against the DA, there has been a debate within the party on whether it should stay or leave the GNU. Staying means the party will have to prepare endure more humbling occasions for the next 4 years. Leaving means going back to opposition benches and missing out on the opportunity to claim some victories in government that can be used to campaign for the 2029 elections.
Another reason for the DA to stay in government is to prevent what is has termed ‘a doomsday coalition’ between the ANC, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP). The DA’s policies have always been market friendly and business formations were at the forefront of calling for an ANC/DA coalition, as it was deemed the most business-friendly scenario compared to the ANC governing with either the EFF or MKP. Thus, the revelation that President Ramaphosa and John Steenhuisen received letters from ‘big business’ urging the ANC and DA to keep the current GNU intact for the sake of the economy came as no surprise.
The DA at a disadvantage
While the DA seeks a reset of the GNU, the ANC is piling pressure on the party to exit the coalition. Feeling buoyant, the ANC, will be looking at limiting the influence of the DA in the coalition and probably not willing give up ground on foreign and economic policies. The DA is now firmly at a disadvantage and has come to the realisation that it does not have the ANC in a corner, as it thought it did. The willingness of the EFF and Action SA to join government has further weakened the DA’s bargaining power.
However, there are some risks for the ANC as well, especially if it decides to reconfigure the GNU and leave the DA out. The EFF has in the past shown that it can drive a hard bargain when it senses that they are in the driving seat. In local government, the party often used its ‘king maker’ status to negotiate for other policy positions, even at national level. Should the ANC wish to go the ANC Gauteng route and form a minority government and negotiate with parties when it comes to passing budgets and legislation, it will put itself into a more difficult position. After witnessing how the ANC deals with its coalition partners, it goes without saying that it will be viewed with suspicion and parties will bargain hard in exchange for its support.
There are some positives
The DA may have suffered some nose bleeds in the GNU, but if it looks on the bright, then it will see that there are things to look forward to. Besides the VAT increase and foreign policy issues, there are areas of convergence between the ANC and DA to salvage the GNU. The GNU recently agreed on a Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP) for 2024–2029 to ensure inclusive growth and job creation; and energy security and transition, to name a few. There is also the R900 billion allocated for infrastructure development over three years that the DA would be happy about.
The Clearing House Mechanism, which serves as a platform to resolve policy disagreements among coalition partners, should be used more. With the fiscal framework agreed and other parts of the budget to be agreed upon, the GNU should use the structure to iron out differences before they go to parliament for deliberations and voting.
In conclusion
Those within the ANC who opposed governing alongside the DA from the start will seize this moment to push for a left-leaning coalition, seeking to bring in the EFF and MKP. However, the ANC’s dominant faction will still view the DA as the more stable, market-friendly partner.
Big business will undoubtedly exert pressure on both the ANC and DA to preserve the GNU in its current form, fearing instability. Yet, buoyed by its recent victory in passing the fiscal framework, the ANC will push for a renegotiation on more favourable terms, capitalising on the DA’s weakened position.
For the DA, these talks will be approached with less bravado than before. Humbled by its miscalculation, it is likely to make concessions, particularly on foreign policy, while still insisting on alignment around economic reforms to retain its influence within the GNU.
